News

Economic news (22-06-2010): Revisi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2010 offset inflasi akibat TDL

 

 

Revisi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2010 offset dampak negative kenaikan inflasi akibat TDL

  • Pemerintah optimis bahwa investasi & export dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi 2010 hingga 6.0%

 

  • Hall ini dapat mereda dampak inflasi 2010 hingga 5.8% dari kenaikan TDL, gas elpiji, & tahun ajaran baru sekolah sehingga masih ada positive spread antara GDP & inflasi.

 

  • Ekspor 1H 2010 diperkirakan naik 45% dibanding realisasi periode yang sama 2009

 

  • Menguatnya rupiah juga menurunkan resiko imported inflation untuk impor bahan baku & kebutuhan domestic lainnya.

 

  • Kelihatannya bursa saham mulai mendiskon revisi ekonomi tersebut yang akan membawa IHSG menembus 3.000

 

 

Makro Ekonomi

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010F 

Inflasi (%)

17.1

6.6

6.6

11.1

4.5%

5.8%

GDP growth (%)

5.7

5.5

6.3

6.1

4.3%

6.0%

GDP growth-inflation

 

 

 

 

(+) 0 .3%

(+) 0.2%

Positive GDP growth

no

no

no

no

yes

yes

Negative GDP (no growth)

(-)11.3%

(-) 1.1%

(- ) 0.3%

(-) 5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Performa IHSG per 6 bln

(+) 2.5%

(+)10.5%

(+) 35%

(-) 20%

(+)  45%

(+) 20%

Performa IHSG per 1 thn

(+) 3.5%

(+) 24%

(+) 70%

(-) 65%

(+)  70%

  (+)  ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nilai tukar terhadap US$

9700

9164

9140

9800

10500

9200

 

* sumber data diambil dari  media elecktronik & cetak seperti detikfinance.com, inilah.com, koran bisnis Indonesia & Kontan

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research.  (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

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