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  Equity Research Monthly Market Outlook
HD Monthly Strategy-July (25-06-2012) (BUY): "Revisi beberapa factor yang merubah outlook IHSG"

Global krisis merubah makro ekonomi: Eurozone banking dan debt krisis, Q3 US stimulus tidak sesuai expektasi, global economic uncertainty & slowdown masih berlanjut sehingga berpotensi menurunkan export batubara, cpo dan pertambangan lainnya. Bila ini masih terus berlangsung, ditakutkan current account deficit melebar (import masih besar, export kurang) dan GDP 2012 Indonesia dapat anjlok dibawah 6.3% hingga 6.1%.

Domestic demand play: Emitten di sektor konsumer, property, banking dan infrastruktur merupakan pilihannya karena cukup terisolasi dari global krisis dan beberapa mempunyai demand inelastis terhadap produknya (rokok, obat, jalan tol). Sektor export pertambangan dan batubara serta CPO kurang menarik karena imbas penurunan permintaan akibat krisis global akan mempengaruhi kinerjanya untuk sisa tahun 2012.

 

Rekomendasi Portofolio & Target Price 1-bulan:

Ticker TP 1 bln PER12 PBV12 ROE12
INDF Rp.4.800 13x 1.29x 10%
JSMR Rp.5.300 22x 4x 18%
BBRI Rp.6.000 9x 2.7x 31%
KLBF Rp.3.800 24x 5x 23%
TLKM Rp.7.800 12x 2.5x 20%
ASII Ro.6.750 15x 3.5x 23%
CPIN Rp.3.050 16x 7x 44%

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Yuganur Wijanarko, Senior Research (mailto:Yuganur@hdx.co.id

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